Thursday, February 18, 2010
In Case You Haven't Noticed
I am not posting very much. If you live on the moon, Federer won the AO. This week there is a 500 tourney, led by Andy Roddick and Fernando Verdasco (Who is already out) Does anyone actually read this? If so, let me know
Thursday, December 10, 2009
My huge list of predictions.
I'm doing the Top 32. That's right. 32. And let me say first Bhagdatis and Gulbis may get there.
Players on their way up in 2010 in green. Down in red. Nothing gray.
1. Roger Federer- Roger will give us one more good year, but it won't be fantastic. He'll hang around the Top 10, I think, but not at #1. Djokovic and del Potro seem to know how to beat him. I think he's more afraid the Djoker is his replacement than delPo, but either is bad. And then there's Davydenko, who seems to suddenly be playing his best in YEARS if not career. I think #1 is a real toss-up.
Players on their way up in 2010 in green. Down in red. Nothing gray.
1. Roger Federer- Roger will give us one more good year, but it won't be fantastic. He'll hang around the Top 10, I think, but not at #1. Djokovic and del Potro seem to know how to beat him. I think he's more afraid the Djoker is his replacement than delPo, but either is bad. And then there's Davydenko, who seems to suddenly be playing his best in YEARS if not career. I think #1 is a real toss-up.
2. Rafael Nadal- He looks soooo beatable. He won to 3 clutchers in Paris (Almagro, Robredo, Tsonga) and couldn't get a set in London against Davydenko, Djokovic, or Soderling. He could well be done for. Berdych is not a consistently good player so don't say the Davis Cup makes him back, though he's not dead yet on clay at least. His tactics are awful all of the sudden (Nadal is trying to change something.I'm not going to discount the steroid conspiracy, which I think makes a good point.)
3. Novak Djokovic- 1 match does not make his Year-end bad. He beat the eventual champ, Nikolay Davydenko, 4-6 6-4 7-5 , holding off a last minute fightback by the Russian. The loss to Soderling WAS bad though and beating Rafa 7-6 6-3 was a pathetic match. He also lost an exhibition set to Viktor Trocki 6-7 (6) but I still think he is the next number one and it will be between him and delPo after the next battle (I think Djoker and Federer) ends in the younger man's favor.
4. Andy Murray- Murray has thrown away so many chances for a real shot at number one. del Potro, Djokovic, and Davydenko all look better, while he does have a good shot at passing Rafael Nadal next year. Still, I say he falls but not off the radar.
5. Juan Martin del Potro- Looks great. Lost to Murray in less-then-great fashion but then went on a tear to the final, surviving 3 sets by Fed and a 3rd set tiebreak from Verdasco to get to the semi. He then beat Soderling in a 3rd set tiebreak to make the final only to be destroyed by Nikolay Davydenko in the final.
6. Nikolay Davydenko- The man of the year (well, the end of the year) is playing like he still deserves the #3 spot he occupied so long ago. He was certainly not expected to recover from serving at 4-5 0-30 in the 3rd set. He especially wasn't expected to break serve on the next Federer serve. He then wasn't expected to overcome a break point to win the next game and get to 1-12 vs . the world #1 Federer . I posted the draw for the first tourney of the year in my previous post, and it features him, Federer, Nadal , Soderling, Tsonga, and Wawrinka (that's all) and he could try to prove himself early there next year to contend for number 1 for the first time against what seems a weaker field than he's had since Roddick was beating Hewitt for #1 (Worst #1 since 1990? Or was that Rafter or Ferrero?)
7. Andy Roddick- Andy 2 has Djokovic's number, which would be great if only he could survive the draw to GET to Djokovic. Which seems more and more uncommon. I think A-Rod is on his way out . He is still capable of going deep frequently often enough to stay in the Top 20 at least.
8. Robin Soderling- Slipped into the top 8 in a tournament he slipped into thanks to Roddick. He could well slip a bit higher in the rankings next year. Roddick looks within range as a target. Soderling can beat anyone... except Federer. This is the one thing that's REALLY hurting him. He can't be happy about that 3rd set tiebreak loss to delPo since he was up a break in the 3rd. That was one of the least exciting matches I've ever seen despite its closeness.
9. Fernando Verdasco- Verdasco is one of the more mentally weak players (A bit odd thing to say given the man behind him) He can play like a #1 or #71. He will never be a Top 5 player unless he changes something.
10. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga- for god's sake, do something! How he is ahead of Gonzalez and Stepanek I will never know, but I do know it isn't going to last unless something about his mental state changes.
11. Fernando Gonzalez- I recently said to my mother James Blake is playing like Gonzalez gone horribly wrong. Things would be a lot better for Fernando Gonzalez if he didn't spend so much time playing like Fernando Gonzalez gone horribly wrong. Having said that, despite inconsistency, who would say that Tsonga or even Verdasco is better than Gonzalez? Several people thought Gonzo was on his way out after a weak 2008, and he proved them wrong by moving back up to the verge of the Top 10. Fun fact: He has the highest number of break points saved of the Top 32.
12. Radek Stepanek- With the exception of the 6-1 6-2 4-6 4-6 6-8 loss to Ferrer, he's looked great as of late. He, like Gonzalez, has looked much better than Tsonga, and he could also break back into the Top 10
13. Gael Monfils- he did draw Djokovic into a tough fight in a 2-6 7-5 6-7 (3) loss but he hasn't lived up to the hype still. For he, Tsonga, and Simon, who all have that problem can always say, "Well, I'm doing better than (countrymen) Chardy (32 on list), Mathieu and Gasquet (who was REALLY overrated)
14. Marin Cilic- Cilic will rise in 2010, I am quite certain. He demolished Nadal 6-1 6-4 before falling to Djokovic in the final. By comparison, Djokovic beat Nadal 7-6 (5) 6-3 in Paris.
15. Gilles Simon- Not a good year for the man who once looked like the next Nadal and now looking at how Nadal is doing, that may be true in a way Simon doesn't like.
16. Tommy Robredo- The former Top 10 player has the clutching problem shared by countrymen Verdasco, Almagro, and Ferrero though certainly not Nadal or Ferrer.
17. David Ferrer- One of, if not the, best comebacks of all time. 1-6 2-6 6-4 6-4 8-6. Unbelievable in a very forgettable year for Ferrer, the only player I know of who ever switches headgear other than Blake. That wasn't off-topic was it?
18. Tommy Haas- If this man took ADHD pills and avoided injuries, he'd be #1. That said, I'm a huge fan of the nicest guy on tour. He needs to stop getting sick or hurt fast though. Not mentally strong either, except for the epic Cilic match. He does have the ability to beat Djokovic, for some reason
19. Mikhal Youzhny- I'm not a huge Youzhny fan, but you can't deny a fantastic end of year (beating both Hewitt and Davydenko in close 3-setters) However, I heard that the emotional Russian is going to focus on doubles.
20. Tomas Berdych- If I picked two words for Berdych they'd be "bombed out" but the 3rd would be "talented" This generation's top underperformer (Gulbis has a shot at this title soon)
21. Stansilas Wawrinka- Stan is also an underperformer who can beat the Top 10, just doesn't. He is, for some reason, playing that huge 6-player exo. mentioned on Davydenko's summary. He's #6, and he's ranked 11 spots below #5. That's incredible. If he goes deep there, maybe he'll get some confidence.
22. Lleyton Hewitt- Lleyton will almost certainly move up the rankings in January, where he was recovering from a hip injury and lost in 1st round to the man who got him , Fernando Gonzalez (#11 on this list) and is near certain to try hard in his home country
23. Juan Carlos Ferrero- Two #1s in a row in the 20s! Ferrero, like Hewitt, had a comeback year in 2009 , but unlike Hewitt doesn't have the excuse of the near-constant, devestating injuries. Oh wait, he does. Well, not to the same degree at least...
24. Ivan Ljubicic- IL moved up, what, 30 spots since the USO? An incredible time at the end of the year, but not an incredible year as a whole. I think we can expect a better 2010?
25. Sam Querrey- A really, really idiotic way to end the season, but still, the newly crowned number two American (Roddick-7) had a great year and has a great future.
26.Nicolas Almagro- The least good player in crucial times except Olivier Rochus. Maybe Haas. But I doubt it.
27. Phillip Kohlschreiber- One of the biggest upsets of the year came from this man . Djokovic, 3rd round, FO. Not a great last few months though.
28. Jurgen Melzer- Quite a good player, but I can't say I can see Melzer breaking into the Top 10 ...ever...
29. Viktor Troicki - I mentioned he beat Djokovic ... in an exhibition... in Serbia...in a single set match... if only he could do well when it counts...
30. Juan Monaco- Seems a very, very good player with very,very bad luck. Still, I say he's on his way up the rankings.
31. Alberto Montanes- A very good last few months give him momentum in 2010.
32. Jeremy Chardy- Chardy remains a bit of an underachiever (a French characteristic it seems) and I think he's on the way out.
The rest:
Mathieu (33) - He could well move up and probably will I think
Isner (34)- I hate his style, but I can't deny he's improved
Gasquet (52)- Time is running out for the prodigy. Speaking of which, where the hell is Young?
Karlovic (37)- Awful year for the king of aces.
Tipseraervic (sp?-38)- Good end of the year for the leader of inconsistency
Bhagdatis, Chiudenelli,Fish, and Nalbandian are both looking to return. Bhagdatis and Nalbandian could both be Top 32 next year easily.
Rochus trying to move up after a tough year.
Gulbis, his image destroyed, trying to recover from probably the most disappointment of any player that didn't miss at least 2 months (Nadal, Bhagdatis, Nalbandian, Hewitt)
3. Novak Djokovic- 1 match does not make his Year-end bad. He beat the eventual champ, Nikolay Davydenko, 4-6 6-4 7-5 , holding off a last minute fightback by the Russian. The loss to Soderling WAS bad though and beating Rafa 7-6 6-3 was a pathetic match. He also lost an exhibition set to Viktor Trocki 6-7 (6) but I still think he is the next number one and it will be between him and delPo after the next battle (I think Djoker and Federer) ends in the younger man's favor.
4. Andy Murray- Murray has thrown away so many chances for a real shot at number one. del Potro, Djokovic, and Davydenko all look better, while he does have a good shot at passing Rafael Nadal next year. Still, I say he falls but not off the radar.
5. Juan Martin del Potro- Looks great. Lost to Murray in less-then-great fashion but then went on a tear to the final, surviving 3 sets by Fed and a 3rd set tiebreak from Verdasco to get to the semi. He then beat Soderling in a 3rd set tiebreak to make the final only to be destroyed by Nikolay Davydenko in the final.
6. Nikolay Davydenko- The man of the year (well, the end of the year) is playing like he still deserves the #3 spot he occupied so long ago. He was certainly not expected to recover from serving at 4-5 0-30 in the 3rd set. He especially wasn't expected to break serve on the next Federer serve. He then wasn't expected to overcome a break point to win the next game and get to 1-12 vs . the world #1 Federer . I posted the draw for the first tourney of the year in my previous post, and it features him, Federer, Nadal , Soderling, Tsonga, and Wawrinka (that's all) and he could try to prove himself early there next year to contend for number 1 for the first time against what seems a weaker field than he's had since Roddick was beating Hewitt for #1 (Worst #1 since 1990? Or was that Rafter or Ferrero?)
7. Andy Roddick- Andy 2 has Djokovic's number, which would be great if only he could survive the draw to GET to Djokovic. Which seems more and more uncommon. I think A-Rod is on his way out . He is still capable of going deep frequently often enough to stay in the Top 20 at least.
8. Robin Soderling- Slipped into the top 8 in a tournament he slipped into thanks to Roddick. He could well slip a bit higher in the rankings next year. Roddick looks within range as a target. Soderling can beat anyone... except Federer. This is the one thing that's REALLY hurting him. He can't be happy about that 3rd set tiebreak loss to delPo since he was up a break in the 3rd. That was one of the least exciting matches I've ever seen despite its closeness.
9. Fernando Verdasco- Verdasco is one of the more mentally weak players (A bit odd thing to say given the man behind him) He can play like a #1 or #71. He will never be a Top 5 player unless he changes something.
10. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga- for god's sake, do something! How he is ahead of Gonzalez and Stepanek I will never know, but I do know it isn't going to last unless something about his mental state changes.
11. Fernando Gonzalez- I recently said to my mother James Blake is playing like Gonzalez gone horribly wrong. Things would be a lot better for Fernando Gonzalez if he didn't spend so much time playing like Fernando Gonzalez gone horribly wrong. Having said that, despite inconsistency, who would say that Tsonga or even Verdasco is better than Gonzalez? Several people thought Gonzo was on his way out after a weak 2008, and he proved them wrong by moving back up to the verge of the Top 10. Fun fact: He has the highest number of break points saved of the Top 32.
12. Radek Stepanek- With the exception of the 6-1 6-2 4-6 4-6 6-8 loss to Ferrer, he's looked great as of late. He, like Gonzalez, has looked much better than Tsonga, and he could also break back into the Top 10
13. Gael Monfils- he did draw Djokovic into a tough fight in a 2-6 7-5 6-7 (3) loss but he hasn't lived up to the hype still. For he, Tsonga, and Simon, who all have that problem can always say, "Well, I'm doing better than (countrymen) Chardy (32 on list), Mathieu and Gasquet (who was REALLY overrated)
14. Marin Cilic- Cilic will rise in 2010, I am quite certain. He demolished Nadal 6-1 6-4 before falling to Djokovic in the final. By comparison, Djokovic beat Nadal 7-6 (5) 6-3 in Paris.
15. Gilles Simon- Not a good year for the man who once looked like the next Nadal and now looking at how Nadal is doing, that may be true in a way Simon doesn't like.
16. Tommy Robredo- The former Top 10 player has the clutching problem shared by countrymen Verdasco, Almagro, and Ferrero though certainly not Nadal or Ferrer.
17. David Ferrer- One of, if not the, best comebacks of all time. 1-6 2-6 6-4 6-4 8-6. Unbelievable in a very forgettable year for Ferrer, the only player I know of who ever switches headgear other than Blake. That wasn't off-topic was it?
18. Tommy Haas- If this man took ADHD pills and avoided injuries, he'd be #1. That said, I'm a huge fan of the nicest guy on tour. He needs to stop getting sick or hurt fast though. Not mentally strong either, except for the epic Cilic match. He does have the ability to beat Djokovic, for some reason
19. Mikhal Youzhny- I'm not a huge Youzhny fan, but you can't deny a fantastic end of year (beating both Hewitt and Davydenko in close 3-setters) However, I heard that the emotional Russian is going to focus on doubles.
20. Tomas Berdych- If I picked two words for Berdych they'd be "bombed out" but the 3rd would be "talented" This generation's top underperformer (Gulbis has a shot at this title soon)
21. Stansilas Wawrinka- Stan is also an underperformer who can beat the Top 10, just doesn't. He is, for some reason, playing that huge 6-player exo. mentioned on Davydenko's summary. He's #6, and he's ranked 11 spots below #5. That's incredible. If he goes deep there, maybe he'll get some confidence.
22. Lleyton Hewitt- Lleyton will almost certainly move up the rankings in January, where he was recovering from a hip injury and lost in 1st round to the man who got him , Fernando Gonzalez (#11 on this list) and is near certain to try hard in his home country
23. Juan Carlos Ferrero- Two #1s in a row in the 20s! Ferrero, like Hewitt, had a comeback year in 2009 , but unlike Hewitt doesn't have the excuse of the near-constant, devestating injuries. Oh wait, he does. Well, not to the same degree at least...
24. Ivan Ljubicic- IL moved up, what, 30 spots since the USO? An incredible time at the end of the year, but not an incredible year as a whole. I think we can expect a better 2010?
25. Sam Querrey- A really, really idiotic way to end the season, but still, the newly crowned number two American (Roddick-7) had a great year and has a great future.
26.Nicolas Almagro- The least good player in crucial times except Olivier Rochus. Maybe Haas. But I doubt it.
27. Phillip Kohlschreiber- One of the biggest upsets of the year came from this man . Djokovic, 3rd round, FO. Not a great last few months though.
28. Jurgen Melzer- Quite a good player, but I can't say I can see Melzer breaking into the Top 10 ...ever...
29. Viktor Troicki - I mentioned he beat Djokovic ... in an exhibition... in Serbia...in a single set match... if only he could do well when it counts...
30. Juan Monaco- Seems a very, very good player with very,very bad luck. Still, I say he's on his way up the rankings.
31. Alberto Montanes- A very good last few months give him momentum in 2010.
32. Jeremy Chardy- Chardy remains a bit of an underachiever (a French characteristic it seems) and I think he's on the way out.
The rest:
Mathieu (33) - He could well move up and probably will I think
Isner (34)- I hate his style, but I can't deny he's improved
Gasquet (52)- Time is running out for the prodigy. Speaking of which, where the hell is Young?
Karlovic (37)- Awful year for the king of aces.
Tipseraervic (sp?-38)- Good end of the year for the leader of inconsistency
Bhagdatis, Chiudenelli,Fish, and Nalbandian are both looking to return. Bhagdatis and Nalbandian could both be Top 32 next year easily.
Rochus trying to move up after a tough year.
Gulbis, his image destroyed, trying to recover from probably the most disappointment of any player that didn't miss at least 2 months (Nadal, Bhagdatis, Nalbandian, Hewitt)
Djokovic, Davydenko dominate end of year
Sorry for the less-than-dailyness lately. Personal reasons, but I'm back now. Look at it this way. The two people seen to be up-and-coming both beat Federer last meeting. Scary stat (for Fed) his post- USO match record vs. Top 10:N. Djokovic (BASEL) L 4-6 6-4 2-6
F. Verdasco (LONDON) W 4-6 7-5 6-1
A. Murray (LONDON) W 4-6 6-3 6-1
J.M. del Potro (LONDON) L 2-6 7-6(5) 4-6
N. Davydenko (LONDON) L 2-6 6-4 5-7
What's interesting about this? He is 2-3 in matches. Also 2-3 in 3rd set. But 5-0 in the 2nd set. 5-0!!! Which means 0-5 in the 1st set. Nadal? 1-5 in the 1st set1-5 in the 2nd too (Good job, Tsonga. You're loser of the month. That match had the Ultra-mentally-weak score of 7-5 7-5)
Davydenko beat Federer. goodbye, 0-12 #1. If Soderling, 0-12 #2 beats Fed, I will declare Federer over. He'll get his chance in in incredibly great looking exo. on Dec. 31 to like Jan. 2. 5/6 top 10. And why does Soda, #8, get Wawrinka while Davydenko, #6, get Tsonga. If Davy DOES beat Tsonga, we get a preview of Rafa for the year. If Tsonga beats Rafa, it's all over. Remember, an early exit for Nadal at AO+ good run by the Djoker= Djokovic #2. Del Potro is also on the verge of passing Murray, who's looked awful lately with the exception beating delPo in RR at London. I think Federer, Davydenko, Nadal, and Tsonga have synced their schedules. The next WEEK they play together again in the same tourney. Djokovic only plays 1 exo before AO. I've got the draw here for the exo:
Federer (1) Federer vs. Sode/Wawr
Bye
Soderling (4)
Wawrinka (6)
Davydenko (3)
Tsonga (5)
Bye
Nadal (2) Nadal vs. Davy/Tson
Sunday, October 18, 2009
Davydenko upsets Nadal in final to win first 1000 event this year
As you can tell by the clay court, this is not a real picture from the match. I have one, but couldn't upload itNikolay Davydenko def. Rafael Nadal 7-6 (3) 6-3 Davydenko took a 4-2 lead but was unable to hold it as Nadal had a set point with Davydenko serving at 4-5 and a deuce game at 5-6 but Davydenko recovered to enter a tiebreak, which, once again, he dominated. The second set he started out very well, and Nadal could never quite break back. Davydenko helps his Final hopes here and Nadal really hurts his standings as it now seems apparent any Top 10 player can beat him (They can't use the height excuse against the 5-10 Davydenko) and here are the standings:
Year to date
1. Roger Federer (Duh)
2. Rafael Nadal
3. Novak Djokovic
4. Andy Murray
5. Juan Martin del Potro
6. Andy Roddick
7. Nikolay Davydenko
8. Fernando Verdasco
9. Robin Soderling
10. Fernando Gonzalez
Entry Ranking (Will change tomorrow, starting at #3)
1. Roger Federer
2. Rafael Nadal
3. Andy Murray
4. Novak Djokovic
5. Juan Martin del Potro
6. Andy Roddick
7. Jo- Wilfred Tsonga (Where is he???)
8. Nikolay Davydenko
9. Fernando Verdasco
10. Gilles Simon (The unlucky one)
My Power Rankings based on who can beat who right now:
1. Roger Federer
2. Novak Djokovic
3. Juan Martin del Potro (Needs something)
4. Andy Murray
5. Nikolay Davydenko
6. Robin Soderling
7. Fernando Verdasco
8. Andy Roddick (Nice losing streak, A-Rod)
9. Marin Cilic (Berdych can beat anyone playing well)
10. Rafael Nadal (Barely survived though didn't have to face a Top 10 player until the final, and when he did it was #8 and he lost in straight sets)
Saturday, October 17, 2009
Nadal and Davydenko
Another retirement in Rafa's favor (6-1 3-0 ret.) while Davydenko won an epic match vs. Djokovic (4-6 6-4 7-6 (1))
- Posted using BlogPress from my iPhone
Davydenko upsets Djokovic
I predicted this. Oh yeah! Davydenko won in a 3rd set tiebreak (4-6 6-4 7-6(1)) Will likely face Nadal in the final, who he has a 2-4 record against, but is playing the best of his life and Rafa is injured so who knows? In case of an upset, he actually has a worse record vs. Lopez (1-4) though the Russian won their last meeting. Davydenko's biggest career win (the Miami '08 tournament) was over Rafael Nadal so the shortest Top 10 player (who has moved from #9 in YTD points to #7, putting him in a better position for the ATP Final; and I don't really get rankings but I think he might pass Tsonga for #7 in Rankings, or maybe even #6 over Roddick if he wins) has a real chance here.
Friday, October 16, 2009
Lopez upsets Soderling, otherwise as planned
(1) Nadal def. Lubicic 3-6 6-3 0-0 ret. This was close prior to Lubicic's retirement and isn't a good sign for Nadal. However, in a stroke of luck, he will play Feliciano Lopez rather than Robin Soderling (see below)
Lopez def. (9) Soderling 7-6(4) 6-3 Lopez is having such a great tournament, but how many people are giving him higher odds against Nadal? Still, Soderling was a huge win, though it was done by running him to death, which won't be an issue for Rafa.
OTHER HALF:
(2) Djokovic def. (8) Simon 6-3 3-6 6-2 How strange is it that the only non-3 set match was the upset? Weird scoreline but a win's a win.(6) Davydenko def. (13) Stepanek 6-1 3-6 6-1 An even stranger scoreline and I can really see this being tighter than the other semi by quite a bit. This one is the nailbiter. The winner has a good chance of winning the whole thing.
TONIGHT:
(1) Nadal-ESP vs Lopez-ESP
(2) Djokovic-SRB vs (6) Davydenko- RUS
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